indyrct / Cotillion CORE / Market Sizing

The ICP compounds.

Three distinct paying ICPs, unlocked in sequence by the same product across four technical horizons, sized bottom-up from confirmed unit economics.

Investor Briefing
20 July 2026
Confidential

Most pre-seed decks present a single blended TAM that conflates distinct buyer types into one number. Cotillion CORE is sized differently: the same product, deployed progressively across four technical horizons (H1 Core → H2 Engage → H3 Connect → H4 Debut), unlocks three distinct paying ICPs that monetise on different timelines. MSPs carry essentially all confirmed revenue today; vendors become a real revenue line once H2 ships; distributors are a future horizon, with pricing yet to be defined.

TAM · ecosystem context only

~$4.05tn

66.7% of the $6.07tn worldwide addressable IT market flows through partners (2026), the ecosystem Cotillion operates inside. Shown for context only: Cotillion takes no rate on channel transaction volume.

Omdia, January 2026

SAM · global, confirmed pricing

$1,080M–$3,030M AUD

MSP + Vendor markets, sized bottom-up from confirmed pricing. $1,080M is the base case; $3,030M AUD is the combined ceiling across both segments at full penetration. Distributor market excluded pending pricing.

SOM · ANZ, Years 1–3

$148.5K → $2.11M–$4.28M AUD

Confirmed lines only (MSP + Vendor). Year 1 (FY26–27): $148.5K–$327K. Year 3 (FY28–29): $2.11M–$4.28M AUD, based on a population of 8,032 ANZ MSPs, MSSPs, resellers and VARs.

InfoMSP, March 2025

H1 Core ships Per-vendor-connection subscription + deal-registration automation, the confirmed primary revenue engine. Enables the MSP ICP.

H2 Engage ships Vendor intelligence SaaS subscription at scale, plus Agent Exchange beta (usage-based, pricing in development). Unlocks the Vendor ICP as a real revenue line.

H3 Connect ships Distributor orchestration and a three-sided marketplace. Pricing model to be defined ahead of launch.

ICP1 · Funded Today

Managed Service Providers

The seat is the MSP, the only ICP with a confirmed, priced, recurring mechanism active from H1 onward.

Unlocked by H1 Core · MVP Q3 2026

TAM = SAM

$900M–$1,980M AUD

150,000–330,000 MSPs globally × $500 AUD/mo × 12 (3–4 connections at $150 list). Upper bound: ~330,000 channel partners with a managed-services revenue line. Omdia/Canalys, Sept 2023, via Cisco

SOM · Y1

$118.5K–$237K

25–50 MSPs, ANZ, FY26–27: 0.3–0.6% of the 8,032-firm base.

SOM · Y3

$1.66M–$3.08M

350–650 MSPs, ANZ, FY28–29: 4.4–8.1% of base.

Pricing: founding cohort
$100 AUD per vendor connection per month (grandfathered), stepping to $150 AUD list from customer 25 or January 2027; a typical MSP settles at 3–4 connections (~$500 AUD/month steady-state). Realised Year 1–2 revenue sits below the steady-state figures shown above.

ICP2 · Moat Unlocks

B2B Vendors, Sold Through Distribution

Negligible by design at H1 (Founding Partner Program only); becomes the second real revenue line once H2 activates.

Unlocked by H2 Engage

TAM = SAM

$180M AUD

6,000 vendors (base case) × $2,500 AUD/mo × 12. An upper-bound scenario of $1,050M AUD at 35,000 vendors (McBain/Omdia) is shown for context and is not part of the base case.

SOM · Y2

$150K–$450K

5–15 vendors, ANZ, FY27–28. Founding Partner Program ceiling is ~$129K AUD across a 6-slot pool.

SOM · Y3

$450K–$1.2M

15–40 vendors, ANZ, FY28–29. Agent Exchange reaches full scale at H3; pricing is not yet defined, so this revenue is excluded from the model rather than assumed at zero.

Pricing: confirmed
$2,500 AUD/month per integration, a working hypothesis pending the first vendor term sheet.

ICP3 · Future Horizon

Distributors

Identified but not yet priced, the clearest near-term opportunity to expand the addressable model.

Not yet priced

H3 Connect scopes distributor orchestration and a three-sided marketplace with cryptographic data separation, but no pricing model has been defined yet. Confirmed revenue through H1–H2 is $0. NextGen Distribution (~40 vendor relationships) is a go-to-market partner today, not yet a paying customer. MDF-funded distributor arrangements are treated as pass-through revenue, attributed to the underlying MSP or vendor line to avoid double-counting.

Next step
Sizing will follow once a distributor pricing model is confirmed.

Why Bottom-Up, ICP-Phased Sizing

Published estimates for "PRM / channel-management software" vary widely, from $3bn to $123bn, a ~40× spread. A unit-economics build can instead be walked line by line. This is why we build bottom-up.

Where Conviction Sits

Phase 1 (MSP) alone supports the pre-seed thesis on its own confirmed economics. Phase 2 (Vendor) becomes the moat once H2 ships. Phase 3 (Distributor) is a future horizon with pricing still to be defined, and not required for the current thesis.

What Triggers The Re-rate

H2 Engage shipping with the vendor subscription live, converting Phase 2 from modelled to realised. The earliest proof point is the first paying vendor, gated on the attribution demo and independent verification review (H1-2027), with the pipeline to be established via NextGen.

Who pays, when & why → Meet the ICPs → Use of funds & runway → How we go to market →

craig.bovaird@indyrct.com

Cotillion CORE · Market Sizing

Sources: Omdia, January 2026 · InfoMSP, March 2025